There is much talk in Lebanon about the upcoming presidential elections, scheduled for November 2007 to replace President Emile Lahoud.
Two questions dominate the political scene in Beirut. One is how can the Hariri-bloc led parliament, which is currently not in-session, meet to elect a new president? And if that happens, who is the new president going to be? He has to be someone accepted by both the March 14 Coalition and the Hezbollah-led opposition.
During the visits of the Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mousa to Beirut in 2006, several names were put forward, including, among others, Army Commander Michel Sulaiman, former army commander and prime minister Michel Aoun, Governor of the Central Bank Riyad Salameh, the Maronite statesmen Nasib Lahoud and Boutros Harb, and former president Amin Gemayel.
According to Article 49 of the Lebanese Constitution, "The president of the republic is elected by secret ballot by two-thirds of the members of parliament." The text does not specify the quorum needed for the electoral session. This leaves the room wide open for speculation, and it is being interpreted in a variety of different ways by both the Hariri-led team and Hezbollah.
The Hezbollah team is saying that the election session needs two-thirds of the entire parliament (meaning 86 deputies) to vote for a president, while the March 14 Coalition objects to it, saying that two-thirds of the assembled deputies, regardless of their sum, are enough to secure a presidential seat.
Speaker Nabih Berri, along with former speakers Hussain Al Hussaini and Kamel Al Assad, also echo the opposition's claim.
The parliament is currently made up of 128 seats, 57 of which are occupied by the opposition while 71 are occupied by the March 14 Coalition. That number has been reduced to 70 after the 2006 assassination of industry minister Pierre Gemayel. This means that the March 14 Coalition would be 16 deputies short of a two-third quorum. But if the March 14 Coalition goes ahead and votes for a new president in November 2007, in the absence of Hezbollah, the opposition will refuse to recognise his legality.
One idea that surfaced briefly in Lebanon and is believed to be the brainchild of the Maronite Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir is to rope in Aoun in the March 14 Coalition. The heavyweight in Christian politics is currently allied to Hezbollah. If he does join the March 14 Coalition, then with his 21 deputies they would secure the two-third majority. Apparently, Aoun has vetoed this proposal because it does not guarantee that he himself would make it as president.
Another problem is the Faoud Siniora cabinet itself. The opposition claims that it is no longer legal because it lacks any Shiite deputies.
Marwan Hamadeh, the Minister of Telecommunications, is calling for the replacement of the six resigned ministers with independent Shiites. This is creative talk that cannot be implemented in a country such as Lebanon.
Replacing the Greek Orthodox minister Yacoub Al Sarraf, however, will be easy. There is more talk in Beirut that the March 14 Coalition should accept the Hezbollah demand and dissolve the Siniora cabinet.
President Lahoud would then have to go into parliamentary discussions with the majority (currently held by March 14) to seek a new prime minister. March 14 would then re-nominate Siniora and Lahoud would have to abide by their decision, since they occupy a majority of seats in the parliament. Naturally, this would be vetoed by the Hezbollah and the opposition, which wants to bring down the entire parliament and thereby the March 14 Coalition that runs it, through an en mass resignation of its 57 deputies.
Not necessary
If that happens, pro-Hariri officials are saying that Siniora would not necessarily have to resign and nor would parliament if the March 14 Coalition deputies remain in office. By-elections would take place and if they do happen, Hezbollah and the opposition can - and will - boycott them. If they do not, then the same deputies from Amal, Hezbollah and the Free Patriotic Movement would be re-elected, and it will be back to square one.
All options are on the table in Lebanon. One is that President Lahoud will appoint a new cabinet, leaving Lebanon with two governments. This new cabinet would be recognised by Syria and Iran and considered illegal by supporters of March 14. When election time arrives, Hezbollah will refuse to vote for a new president that is dictated by March 14. The opposite will happen as well. As a result, two presidents might assume office in Lebanon. They would be running two different and hostile governments, spelling out more destruction and chaos in the already troubled "Switzerland of the Middle East".
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
