There is serious talk coming out of Beirut that the new president of Lebanon is going to be another officer, this time, Army Commander General Michel Suleiman.
Suleiman has always been a potential candidate, but few took his candidacy seriously given the large number of potential politicians who have had their eyes set on Ba'abda Palace from the minute it was occupied by the current president Emille Lahoud in 1998.
It was believed that Suleiman would never stand a chance before the ambitions of more established, and office-hungry men such as General Michel Aoun or former president Ameen Gemayel.
Today, more so than ever, Suleiman's chances look bright. Aoun has clearly been vetoed by the United States and the March 14 Coalition that is headed by Sa'ad Al Harriri.
Gemayel's chances got ruined when he was defeated earlier this month in the parliamentary by-elections, by an unknown candidate from the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) that is headed by Aoun.
Other names put forward by March 14, such as Bourtos Harb or Robert Ghanem, are too controversial and will never be accepted by the Hezbollah-led opposition.
The French, who are jump-starting their diplomacy in Lebanon, have seemingly resigned themselves to the fact that neither a pro-Syrian president would do, nor would an anti-Syrian one be accepted by the opposition. An independent - if there is such a thing in Lebanon - would have to be found, or created.
Michel Suleiman (59) was born in Amchit in 1948 and became commander of the Lebanese Army in December 1998, taking over from General Emille Lahoud, who became president of the republic.
After studying political science, he joined the Lebanese Army in October 1967, three months after the collective Arab defeat against Israel; a war that Lebanon did not join.
He drifted from one military post to another, becoming commander of the Mount Lebanon region in 1991, after the Civil War. During the years of hostility, he did not take sides with any of the warring factions.
The French recently brought up the idea of General Suleiman, who would rule Lebanon for a transition period of up to two years.
That was echoed by Lahoud himself, who trusts and likes Suleiman, and who announced if all parties do not agree on a candidate by the time of elections in late September 2007, then he would hand over presidential powers to a Military Command, headed by the Army Commander.
To date, March 14 has not vetoed this proposal, although it certainly is not what they had in mind. The Syrians have also not objected to it. Naturally, neither has Hezbollah.
Each said yes - or gave a preliminary okay - for different reasons. The Syrians believe that this is the best they can get because bringing someone who is completely pro-Syrian is close to impossible.
For similar reasons, Hezbollah accepted, believing that Suleiman would allow the guerrilla group continue operation, and give them a greater political role in government. At best, his new government would revoke previous measures taken by Prime Minister Fouad Al Siniora, like approving the international tribunal in the Harriri Affair under Article 7 of the UN Charter.
The Maronite Patriarch Mar Nasrallah Boutros Sfeir has also accepted Suleiman's nomination, which requires amending the Lebanese Constitution.
Sfeir, who has been trying to come up with creative solutions, along with Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri and Saudi Ambassador Abdulaziz Khoja, expressed his reservations, however, at having to resort to a military man - again - to answer all of Lebanon's worries.
He fears that once his interim period of two years is over, the new president - having enjoyed the seat of power for 24-months -will seek another term in office (which is exactly what happened with Lahoud).
Berri and Sfeir fear that this agreement, which spares Lebanon future hostility, is too good to last. They are afraid that March 14 will make a last minute U-turn and veto Suleiman's candidacy, since the name is not fully endorsed by Saudi Arabia.
Washington DC after all, is not too enthusiastic about Suleiman. He is politically independent - to independent for Washington's taste - and yet comes across as firmly committed both to the combating of Israel and the targeting of Syria.
His one slogan has been "Israel is the enemy" something that pleases Hezbollah but is frowned upon by March 14. If elected to office, he would certainly work for a greater role for Hezbollah in government, and might even turn a blind eye to their activities in South Lebanon, as the case with Lahoud in 1998-2006.
Also to March 14's displeasure was a recent remark by the Army Commander, saying: "Fatah Al Islam is linked to Al Qaida not Syria."
Uproar
This caused uproar in government circles, where a variety of March 14 leaders have been blaming the conflict in northern Lebanon on Syria, claiming that the radical Islamic group Fatah Al Islam, is a product of Damascus. By coming out in Syria's defence, Suleiman clearly has not intention either of upsetting the Syrians, or Hezbollah.
Other parties, like Aoun himself, will write off Suleiman's candidacy, seeing himself as more fit for the job. He will work with any party, be it March 14 or Hezbollah, to bring down Suleiman.
The situation resembles several others in Lebanon's modern history. One is when Army Commander Fouad Shehab refused to take part in internal hostility in 1958, known as the first civil war, then became president of Lebanon.
The other is when Aoun did the same in 1988, having also refrained from taking sides in the second civil war. Shehab went on to become president in 1958 - one of the finest in Lebanon's history - but Aoun failed in 1988 to reach the presidency. He has been trying ever since to reach Ba'abda. He will torpedo Suleiman - or anyone - who will oppose him.
Will Suleiman become another Fouad Shehab, or Michel Aoun?
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
