It seems like the big players have placed their bet in Lebanon. The Saudis "prefer" Nassib Lahhoud of the March 14 Coalition, a respected statesman from the Maronite community.
The Americans, who "insist" that nobody should interfere in the elections, "prefer" Boutros Harb, another Maronite candidate from March 14. The Syrians want Michel Aoun, the Christian heavyweight who is allied to Hezbollah.
French are undecided, with an official line saying that they would support whomever is chosen by the people of Lebanon. Some press reports, however, say that they were in favour of bringing Army Commander Michel Suleiman to Ba'abda Palace, for an interim period of two years, to avoid a constitutional vacuum.
That proposal, apparently, was vetoed by the Americans and Saudis because of Suleiman's friendship with both the Syrians and Hezbollah. Suleiman, however, still stands as a possible president-in-waiting, depending on the outcome of events in the upcoming week.
All of these "bets" are preliminary. Anything can change between now and September 25.
According to the Lebanese weekly Al Kifah Al Arabi, if the Americans back out on Lahhoud, their second bet would be Riad Salameh, the compromise candidate who currently serves as Governor of the Central Bank of Lebanon.
Salameh, who is currently not officially standing for the presidential elections, is seen as an independent technocrat with an exceptionally unblemished record, who is acceptable by all parties in the Lebanese conflict.
If the Hezbollah-led opposition vetoes all of March 14's candidates, then Salameh would stand a higher chance at becoming president. His candidacy, however, like that of Michel Suleiman, requires a constitutional amendment.
Article 49 of the Constitution says that a candidate running for office must not be employed by the government. A period of no less than two years in retirement is needed before a civil servant can run for office - something that applies neither to Salameh nor Suleiman.
Legal experts, however, are saying that although this clearly applies to Suleiman, it does not apply to Salameh, who is "contracted" for the post and not actually employed by the Lebanese government.
Several politicians in Lebanon, including March 14 heavyweights such as Samir Gagegea and Walid Junblatt, argue that no constitutional amendments can be made after the constitutional deadline of September 25.
They want to minimise the chances of bringing any figure who is not a member of March 14 to the Ba'abda Palace. After this given date, they argue, parliament loses its legislative powers and becomes strictly, a voting body.
It can no longer amend the constitution. This means if Salameh or Suleiman stand any chance at running for office, this would have to be within the next week.
The Syrians are worried about US plans for Lebanon, especially after US Ambassador Jeffrey Feltman said that Lebanon is a strategic partner for the US in the Middle East. They repeatedly claim that they will not tolerate an anti-Syrian president in Lebanon, who allows Lebanon to be used by the US for anti-Syrian activity.
They fear that a president from March 14 would further the anti-Syrian campaign, and work for the disarming of Hezbollah, Syria's main ally in Lebanon. Likewise, a president from March 14, who rules with Fouad Siniora means that all of Syria's allies in Lebanon will be completely marginalised and kept out of government jobs.
The fact that the US Ambassador to Lebanon Jeffery Feltman has prolonged his stay in Lebanon until after the elections, and that his successor Michele Sison has not arrived is worrying for Damascus. This means that the Americans are planning to manipulate the presidential elections through Feltman, an outright supporter of March 14.
On the other hand, the Saudis "prefer" Lahhoud. They do not want to force their candidate on Lebanon, however, fearing that the opposition would refuse to vote or obey him, and resort to creating a parallel government, headed by a pro-Syrian president.
That is why the Saudis supported the Berri Initiative, hoping to win support from Hezbollah for Lahhoud, or any candidate from March 14.
Strong ally
The other March 14 candidate is Boutros Harb. A lawyer by profession, he worked with Nassib Lahhoud in the Qornet Shehwan Gathering, but had previously been a strong ally of the Syrians, who made him Minister of Education in the early 1990s.
One of the two Maronite candidates from March 14 has to step out of the presidential race, so that only one Christian runs in the race, supported by the Hariri bloc. This would take place after all Christian forces within March 14, which include the Lebanese Phalange and the Lebanese Forces, decide on one candidate.
Sources in Lebanon still do not rule out the candidacy of former President Ameen Gemayel, whose record was seriously affected, however, after losing the Metn parliamentary elections earlier this summer, against a political nobody from the Free Patriotic Movement of General Michel Aoun.
Respectable candidates, however, whether it is Lahhoud or Harb, will refuse coming to power with a purely Christian mandate. They will even refuse being voted into office under nothing more than US support and an umbrella from March 14.
They want history to remember them as spokesmen for all of Lebanon. They also don't want Christian history to remember them as having come to power under Sunni patronage, thanks to Sa'ad Al Hariri and the Saudis, or US support. This is a long-standing norm in Lebanon.
During the last proper elections that took place in 1975, between Suleiman Franjiyyieh and Elias Sarkis, each had an impressive mixture of Christians and Muslims among their parliamentary supports.
Franjiyyieh, who won with a one vote difference over Sarkis, had Christian leaders behind him such as Pierre Gemayel and Raymond Edde, as well as Muslim heavyweights like Kamel Al Asaad and Saeb Salam. Sarkis's team had Christians such as Rene Mouawwad, and Muslim "giants" such as Rashid Karameh.
Will history - or can history - repeat itself, given so much polarisation in Lebanese politics, and so many different "preferences" from Washington, Riyad, Paris, and Damascus?
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
