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Twenty years after Lester C. Thurow published his book Head to Head: The coming economic battle among Japan, Europe and America, it is now time to ask whether the prophecy has come true or not.
Has scientific and technological progress produced other powers that will have a big impact in the future or not?
Despite the importance of the book and the high academic status of its writer, it is development and scientific progress that has had the last word in deciding the winners of economic battles in the last few years.
The world has changed dramatically in the last 20 years. There is a well-known story of a Polish man who was hit by a train in 1988 and was in coma until 2006. When he first opened his eyes, the man thought people around him were crazy, and was wondering why they were all holding some gadget and speaking to themselves.
The answer came quickly: It's a mobile phone, and very soon, you will be holding one yourself and taking part in the technological and media revolution that changed life on earth in the past 18 years, while you were in a coma.
If we go back to Thurow's book, it is obvious now that the battle is not among the sides he predicted. Japan has weakened in the past two decades, with growth rates falling to less than 1 per cent.
Meanwhile, China and India joined the competitors with growth rates of between 9 and 11 per cent in the last ten years.
Russia is also ready with all its natural and human wealth and expertise. It is one of the richest countries in natural resources, especially oil and gas, and is presently Europe's main provider of natural gas. China has become the world's top exporter and major trade partner. Even the US suffers a huge deficit in its trade balance with China.
India has major abilities and human resources spread all over the world. It is still working hard to become one of the sides of the battle, with emphasis on its educational and professional capabilities. Thurow placed education on top when he talked about the US, Europe and Japan.
Thus, five powers will determine the nature of the global battle. They are the US, Europe, China, Russia and India.
The result will bring about a radical change in the nature of economic and strategic relations and a shift in the centres of power and interests within international relations.
These strategic changes coincide with a technological and media leap, which will increase the depth and importance of the battle's effects on the entire world.
Arab countries, being a major source of energy, will play a crucial role in tipping the scales of power and will be most affected by such changes.
If we take these points into consideration, we will understand the reasons behind the current struggle in the region, especially the war in Iraq, which US sources say possesses the world's largest oil reserves.
But, what about other powers? Will they remain neutral, waiting for the results of this struggle, or do they have their own economic and strategic vision, considering that the upcoming struggle is economic in nature?
Trade movement all over the world indicates that new alliances of the powers that control international relations will be formed. The world's super powers and economically powerful countries are moving towards shaping a new map of the main economic and trade hubs to occupy leading positions within the next 20 years.
Countries looking for a foothold in this new map need to draw up strategies and visions that aim to specify priorities and the nature of relations, the importance of influential powers and their impacts on the interests of countries all over the world.
The writer is a UAE economic expert.
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