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Manila: Galloping world rice prices should start to calm in the next month as fresh crops hit markets, but they will not return to 2007 levels anytime soon due to soaring production costs and rising demand, a top expert said.
Consumers from Bangkok to Tehran have been experiencing the worst leaps in the food staple's price since the early 1970s, when Opec's oil squeeze sent rice prices shooting up to $1,300-1,400 a tonne, in inflation-adjusted terms.
Thai 100 per cent B grade white rice, considered the world's benchmark, is around $950 per tonne, triple its price at the start of 2007, as exporting nations curb shipments to keep a lid on inflation and importers scour for supply.
"My guess would be we will start to see it stabilise in another month or so," Robert Zeigler, director general of the Philippines-based International Rice Research Institute, said. "We will hit a peak and it will drop pretty quickly but not anywhere near $300 a tonne."
At the time of the 1970s crunch, IRRI came to the rescue with the Green Revolution: the development of high-yielding rice seeds that multiplied harvests of Asia's food staple and enabled major producers such as China, India and Thailand to industrialise.
To achieve a second breakthrough, Zeigler warned urgent action was needed by governments and international agencies to boost rice yields and improve poor people's access to a grain that feeds half the planet's 6.6 billion strong population.
"There is a period over the next 5 or 10 years where governments are going to have to pay much closer attention to the food supply and the needs of the poor and the working people," he said. "The market [alone] is not going to provide a solution that is acceptable."
With little scope to expand paddies as cities, factories and biofuel plantations gobble up land, Zeigler said yields, which have been plateauing, must be bolstered by improving crop management, post-harvest technologies and introduction of new varieties.
"If the farmers who are getting 3.5 tonnes [per hectare] today used good seeds and managed their fertiliser and water properly they could get 4.5 tonnes next season."
Zeigler said a few billion dollars would go a long way towards improving global food security through investment in agricultural systems and research and development.
"One stealth bomber, B2, costs $1.2 billion. It's still pocket change when you consider that political stability, social stability and therefore economic growth depend on having an adequate food supply for the poor and the working people. It's not a huge amount."
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