US Vice-President Dick Cheney started this week his third tour of the Middle East since he took office in early 2001. In an official statement, the White House said that Cheney has been sent to the region to help resume the peace process between the Israelis and the Palestinians and prepare grounds for President George W. Bush's forthcoming visit to Israel in May.
The statement was somehow bewildering since everybody knows that Cheney is the last US official to be interested in any sort of peace in the Middle East. He opposed the Annapolis peace meeting last November, advocated by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and was designed to revive peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. He tried to undermine efforts to solve the Iran nuclear crisis by diplomatic means. He encouraged Israel to attack Lebanon after the capture of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah in July 2006. He was the latent force behind the US invasion of Iraq; and it was him who once said: "There is no problem that military force cannot solve".
Having said that, Cheney's tour of the Middle East has absolutely nothing to do with peace efforts; it was rather planned to address his two key obsessions: Iran and oil prices. This would naturally make Saudi Arabia, Cheney's most important Middle East stop. In Riyadh, Cheney would have to do a lot of convincing efforts to get the Saudis on board in case of an attack against Iran. He would also try to get them to agree to increase oil production to moderate the prices in the international market. Most probably he would draw a grim picture of the US economy as oil prices continue to rise. The rising bill for imported petroleum lowers already anaemic consumer savings rates, adds to inflation, worsens the trade deficit, undermines the dollar and makes it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to balance its competing goals of fighting inflation and sustaining growth, Cheney would maintain. This gloomy future of the US economy would help the Democrats capture the White House in this year's presidential elections - the Democrats have not always been in good term with the Saudis.
Cheney's most important argument would focus, however, on oil prices. High oil prices would help foes such as Iran to build-up their military power; something the Saudis would be gravely concerned about. With crude oil prices exceeding $100 a barrel, Iran, Cheney would argue, may be better able to defy the Bush administration because of swelling oil revenue. Iran has used its oil wealth to dispense patronage across the Middle East, vying for influence even with longtime US allies such as Qatar and Oman.
Vulnerable
It will indeed be less vulnerable to sanctions designed to pressure it into giving up its nuclear programme or opening it to inspection. Furthermore, Cheney believes, "unpopular" mullahs hold onto power by financing internal security services and buying off elites with oil money, which accounts for 70 per cent of government revenues. If the price of oil were suddenly to drop to, say, $40 a barrel, the "repressive" regime in Tehran would lose its steady income. And that is an outcome Saudi Arabia could easily achieve by opening the oil spigot for as long as necessary.
Cheney would also complain that high oil prices are helping rivals such as Russia and China to build up their power and defy the US in the world stage. These two countries are helping Iran in the UN Security Council to evade tougher sanctions. Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, is trying to reclaim former Soviet republics as part of its sphere of influence. Freed of the need to curry favour with foreign oil companies and Western bankers, Russia can resist what it views as American expansionism, particularly regarding Nato enlargement and US missile defence in Eastern Europe, and forge an independent approach to contentious issues such as Iran's nuclear programme.
This is what Cheney is likely to tell his Saudi hosts upon arrival. The question is will he succeed in having them to agree with him?
Dr Marwan Kabalan is a lecturer in media and international relations, Faculty of Political Science and Media, Damascus University, Syria.
