In the last two weeks Lebanon appeared close to the brink of civil war again. The drama of full-scale fighting in the streets of Beirut brought back all the fears built up by decades of war. But by the end of last week the violence receded, and people were able to catch their breath again.
However, the underlying political standoff remains as intransigent as ever, and after two weeks of tension it is clear that Hezbollah, the Shiite militia, has come out on top by some margin. The March 14 Coalition government tried to push them, but Hezbollah pushed back a lot harder, and reminded all the leaders in the government that they are not in control of south Lebanon, and certainly not in control of Hezbollah.
After the end of the civil war in 1989 Hezbollah did not disarm, claiming that its position on the frontline against Israel meant that it had to remain able to fight. And it started to run south Lebanon, expanding its operations to include a whole range of offerings building a civil society as it wanted, such as its own health and education services, and its own TV station. The Lebanese government was too weak to interfere and let this continue.
Fifteen years later in 2004, the Cedar movement transformed Lebanese politics as the Sunni-based Future Party, headed by Sa'ad Hariri, the son of assassinated former prime minister Rafik Hariri, took power at the centre of the March 14 coalition. The March 14 coalition pushed Syria out of active participation in Lebanon, but Syria did not give up and reinforced its alliance with its friends in Hezbollah as the only way to maintain an influence on Lebanese politics, by building up the opposition to the anti-Syrian March 14 government.
Achievements
Regardless of Syria, Hezbollah had the benefit of being the only Arab force which had fought and beaten the Israelis, by forcing the earlier unilateral withdrawal of the occupying Israeli forces from the south, and also by winning the 2006 war with Israel. These achievements brought Hezbollah a huge bank of goodwill from Arabs all over the region, many of whom were totally against Hezbollah's political aims, but welcomed its success against Israel.
However, a political crunch came as the Shiite ministers withdrew from the cabinet in 2006, and in 2007 the president's term ended without a successor. Talks about finding a successor have run into repeated failure, and no compromise has been possible, firstly because Hezbollah is too large to ignore and no solution can be found without its agreement, and it wants a larger share of power than is on offer.
Therefore a standoff has frozen Lebanese politics for over a year. The recent round of violence was a test by the March 14 government to see how firm Hezbollah would be, as it tried to reduce two areas of Hezbollah control, which were the airport and its independent communications network. As a test of strength it was a disaster and the government lost badly. Hezbollah sent its forces into Beirut, took control of some areas, destroyed Hariri's Future Party offices, and then withdrew of its own will handing the streets back to the army.
A few days later senior coalition partner and Druze leader Walid Junblatt was attacked in his home territory in the Shouf mountains. Junblatt recently has been tough on Hezbollah, describing them as "being run by remote by the Iranians and Syrians, not willing to accept the rule of the Lebanese state, and wanting to be able to declare war and peace whenever they feel like it".
This enraged Hezbollah, and it and its allies took control of Junblatt's home territory, showed they are able to impose their presence wherever they wish to, and they then withdrew.
This has left the governing March 14 coalition looking very ragged. Any authority they had before has been battered by their loss of control in the past two weeks. And as a result their position in negotiating any way forward to end the underlying political stand-off has been weakened.
The outlook is grim for any immediate chance of rebuilding of the Lebanese state. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, knows that he does not need a deal. Hezbollah can continue to run the south, build its society as it wishes, and defend itself without the help of the Lebanese government. It has strong local support, and its alliance with Syria gives it access to arms as required.
In the past year, many have tried to intermediate, including the French Foreign Minister who rather bizarrely thought that the former colonial power had some influence; the Arab League which did not get far; and several ad-hoc groups of Arab states, including one at the moment which numbers Saudi Arabia and the UAE among them. None have managed to achieve a settlement.
Slowly consensus is growing that the solution is not a Lebanese solution. It has to be found by stopping Syria's support for Hezbollah, and then working on the dim-inished Hezbollah to accept some kind of compromise. This will not happen in the near future so the outlook is poor, with continuing political stasis dragging Lebanon back into regular chaos.
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