The resumption of Syrian-Israeli peace talks, through Turkish mediation, was perhaps the single most important development in the Middle East last week. In Syria as well as in Israel, the news came as a pleasant development for some, whereas others took a more cautious stand.
Given Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's blatant weakness, there are in fact genuine doubts in Damascus about the real intentions of Olmert from agreeing to resume peace talks with Syria. Many Syrians believe that Olmert may indeed be trying to salvage his political future by diverting the attention away from his legal troubles and place the focus instead on foreign policy.
The Israeli prime minister faces a criminal investigation that should eventually lead him to step down. Resuming peace talks with Syria, it is argued, could provide him with a lifeline. Yet, undertaking serious negotiations with Syria could also be the very reason that results in the collapse of his government. With a thin parliamentary majority, Olmert is dependent on the right-wing religious Shas party, which threatened to leave government if the Golan Heights are returned to Syria. In addition, several opinion polls have recently shown that two-thirds of the public in Israel oppose a return of the Golan Heights to Syria.
Other analysts believe that Olmert may be trying to squeeze Mahmoud Abbas, Chairman of the Palestinian Authority, by playing the Syrian track against the Palestinian's, an old Israeli trick. Yet, the most credible factor, which might have played key role in Israeli's decision to resume peace talks with Syria, is to encourage it to abandon its alliance with Iran. If that was truly Israel's key motive, then the peace process will most probably lead to nowhere.
In recent weeks, Israeli officials have repeatedly stated that a successful conclusion for the peace process relies on Syria's willingness to abandon its strategic alliance with Iran and cease its support to Hezbollah and Hamas. Syria rejects any Israeli demand concerning its regional relations, maintaining that foreign policy orientations are matters of sovereignty and are to be decided only by the Syrian government. Damascus believes that instead of trying to dictate its regional relations, Israel needs to acknowledge, in principle, Syria's sovereignty over every inch of the Golan Heights.
Commitment
To show its commitment towards its regional allies and rejection to Israel's demands, Syria's Foreign Minister Walid Al Moallem chose Tehran to answer the call for peace made by Olmert. Standing next to Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, Al Moallem said that, "If Israel is serious and wants peace, nothing will stop the renewal of peace talks".
A few days later, Damascus sent its Defence Minister, Hassan Turkmani, to Tehran in a highly publicised visit to bolster military co-operation between the two countries; another sign that Syria would not sacrifice its ties with Tehran in exchange for promises to return the Golan Heights sometime in the future.
Syrian fears were exacerbated by Olmert's denial before the Israeli parliament that he had made no commitment to Damascus to pull out of the Golan Heights. "From February 2007 to May 2008, nothing was said aside from 'you know what I want, and I know what you want - so let's talk'," Olmert told a parliamentary committee last week. If this statement signifies anything it is Israel's lack of interest in peace with Syria as such. Olmert was instead interested in exploring the possibility of nudging Syria away from Iran. This objective will be extremely hard to achieve.
For the past few years Syria has been relying heavily on Iran to resist international pressure. It tilted further towards Tehran after the coming of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose supportive statements compensated for the lack of sympathy in the Arab world. Political, economic, military and other agreements were signed between the two countries and Iran became the largest foreign investor in Syria. The Lebanon war of 2006 signified the importance of this alliance.
Given the strategic nature of this alliance, anything short of full-package incentives, Syria and Iran are very unlikely to sacrifice their relationship. Clearly, Israel cannot and would not provide that.
Dr Marwan Kabalan is a lecturer in media and international relations, Faculty of Political Science and Media, Damascus University, Syria.
