The more you expect things to change, the more they remain the same. That is the case for our region and for this region only, we can add to the above phrase, there's always a strong possibility for things to get a lot worse.
There are two things to keep in mind: US presidential nominee Barack Obama's latest remarks against Iran, which brought us back to previous US presidential hopefuls and the latest ceasefire between Israelis and Palestinians, whereby Israel has put its summer plans of attacking the occupied Palestinian territories on hold, until it deems it necessary to do so.
Let's start with the first. Obama, whose supporters from this part of the world are many, is getting better at "talking the talk" to get him closer to his Jewish, Israeli and pro-Israeli friends than ever.
A few days ago, Israel carried out a major military exercise or more specifically, a rehearsal for a potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
When asked about it, Obama said Israel is justified in providing for its security amid the "extraordinary threat" posed by Iran.
His unique position of having open discussions with world leaders, including Iran, North Korea and Cuba, is now a thing of the past.
Yes there were signs that his policy was like every other US leader (remember his hawkish opinions on Afghanistan and Pakistan, where he said he would take unilateral military action there if necessary to bring down Al Qaida fighters?) but to flip-flop on such a crucial decision (and given the current world setting) which put him in a different league to Democratic and Republican candidates is a major disappointment.
A few months ago when he was still struggling, Obama stressed on dialogue and diplomacy as the proper means for addressing the Middle East's problems. He even went as far as saying that he would "talk to Iran and Syria" instead of resorting to violence and war.
Dangerous phase
Tensions with Iran have now entered a more dangerous phase. Israel is threatening and Bush is weighing his options.
Some analysts are predicting Bush will go for one of two things: either hold off on an attack if republican presidential candidate John McCain wins and have him take care of it, or actually "force the issue" on the Democrats if Obama makes it to the White House.
Even the neutral International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohammad Al Baradei warned against attacking Iran. Obama now says he would be meeting "with the appropriate Iranian leaders at a time and place of my choosing - if and only if - it can advance the interests of the United States". A far cry from his former position.
The incident of the two girls who went to an Obama rally last week, rocking their hijabs (headscarves) only to be told that they wouldn't be sat behind the podium because of their "headwear" is also relevant here.
It is as if the Obama campaign continuously seeks to disassociate him with Muslims and Arabs. Well isn't this a major contrast between Obama's message of embracing diversity and the two girls' experience?
So what we can conclude here is that in a typical US elections battle, principles are pushed aside and hypocrisy takes centre stage.
As for what is happening in the Occupied Territories, the situation remains volatile despite the latest 6-month truce signed between Hamas and Israel. Just hours after the deal was announced, Israeli air strikes killed six Palestinians.
In the first six months of this year, Israeli forces killed almost 400 Palestinians, an alarming death toll equalling that of all of 2007.
The question that begs itself is: what makes this ceasefire any different from previous ones? Tel Aviv has already made it clear that should the truce fall apart (by its own standards of course), it is more than prepared to carry out a large-scale military action into the Gaza Strip, similar to previous years.
Meanwhile, the Jewish state continues to expand its illegal colonies on Palestinian land, defying international law and condemnation.
Instead of seeking a long-term solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, we are left with a weak agreement that both parties currently view with tremendous suspicion. At best, it gives Palestinians limited hope and some freedom. And an end to Israeli occupation is typically pushed to later stages.
So there we have it. The current inclinations and the foreseeable future suggest that the prospect of peaceful and just solutions for this region is at present very unlikely. In other words, the time for realistic optimism, is not yet here.
Your comments
I will take your criticisms about the headscarf at an Obama rally seriously, when I see Christian and Jewish believers allowed in the background of one of Amajinedad's hate-filled speeches about Israel.
d
Texas,USA
Posted: June 24, 2008, 06:46
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