In a recent article in the Washington Post, former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger wrote about the future of the world and the new international order.
He pointed out that three revolutions are simultaneously taking place in the world. They include the transformation of the traditional state system of Europe; the radical Islamist challenge to historic notions of sovereignty; and the drift of the centre of gravity of international affairs from the Atlantic to the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Although each point has a special significance, the third one is the most important, which deserves to be examined and scrutinised.
Since the end of the Cold War, the Atlantic Ocean rim countries in the West have managed to consolidate their co-operation and security planning through the establishment of Nato. Moreover, Western Europe and North America have a common culture and a similar political system. In that sense, the US and Canada are an extension of Western Europe.
In fact, Kissinger's article warns that the future of the world lies in the East, and that the West needs to formulate a new national security policy.
The essential difference between the Atlantic and the Pacific and Indian Oceans does not lie with the nature of the rich intellectual, cultural and historical heritage of the people living off the coasts of these oceans.
Kissinger said that change in traditional systems in Europe - the shrinking role of the state and growing power of the European Union - was weakening its relations with the US and has reduced the political weightage of the West.
Furthermore, radical Islamist challenges have appeared mostly against the US, not Europe, as Kissinger pointed out. The aim is to destabilise the US, reduce its power and damage its prestige.
Is Kissinger's theory supported by facts, or is he simply pointing out to a potential risk and adding his considerable strategic weight to the decision-making group in the US, which calls for containing some Asian countries, including China?
The shift in the international centre of power is due to the decline of one power and the rise of another. In Europe and North America, the economy is on the downslide, whereas in Asian countries, especially in China, India and Japan, and to a lesser degree South Korea and Malaysia, it is on the upswing.
The Asian countries with a high economic rate of growth are either off the Pacific or the Indian Ocean, while Russia, which is partially overlooking the Pacific, has been adopting an open policy towards both the East and the West. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it is a half-Asian, half-European country.
The last two decades have seen an impressive growth in the economies of these countries, especially in China, which had the world's highest growth rate of 9 per cent. China is also the world's second largest energy consumer after the US. Yet, a strong economy does not guarantee a strong position in international politics. Many economic giants have an insignificant political pull at the global level. This is because a strong economy does not automatically elevate a country to the elite group of international decision makers. The key to real power is scientific and technological progress in four vital sectors.
Atomic power
The first is the development of atomic power, which will be the world's main source of energy after the depletion of oil. Second is the use of space for defence, communications and gathering information.
The other two fields are information technology, which is vital for modern life, and genetic engineering, which brings scientific fiction closer to reality, and may be one of the key factors to power in the future.
Western countries, especially the US, are leaders in these fields, through their universities and research centres, which are working hard to diversify technological applications of science, especially the application of nanotechnology. It is a fact that most research is carried out in the Western countries, and the highest number of patents are also issued to them. Under these circumstances, it is highly unlikely that the Western countries will lose their powerful positions in the foreseen future.
Dr. Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.
Your comments
Look at history and judge, not the current state, it is a cycle event, the civilization cycles around the globe and each nation gains from the previous ones. A great knowledge that makes them more powerful than the previous ones, as a proof, the east countries and Middle East are gaining both atomic and economic powers and soon, they would lead the world
Ahmed
Abu Dhabi,UAE
Posted: July 07, 2008, 12:53
The writer's analysis neglects military power and uses thereof, India has just enough military power for example, and it will never be a world leader.
Despite NATO, Europe has less and less military power, and Canada has none. Europe and Canada can squeak and squeal but who really pays any attention to them?
Russia has the remnants of its military technology and lots of attitude. No one is quite sure exactly what China has but it doesn't seem like a real good idea to test them and push for a showdown.
The rest of the world including South America, Malaysia and the Middle East has no military power. No matter how much technology can be purchased, without the bullets and the boots to back it up, the owners will be powerless and not listened-to.
Nancy
Los Angeles,USA
Posted: July 07, 2008, 09:37
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