The world is watching with great interest and anticipation the Iranian scene following Iran's response to an incentives package by world powers trying to curb its nuclear ambitions.
Iran's reply to the 5 plus one group's package was calculated to be both rigid and flexible at the same time.
Iran's stance has not changed on uranium enrichment issues, but it also says its plans are peaceful for power generation. Iran made it very clear that it will not back off its nuclear programme.
The flexibility in Iran's reply is in its willing to stop uranium enrichment for a while, after and not before the coming negotiations.
The European foreign policy coordinator chief Javier Solana, considered Iran's reply as including difficult and complicated demands to be secured for Iran if it accepts to be a partner in resolving international crises.
Hence, Iran will make its uranium- enrichment-halting-negotiations entrance strategy look as though it did not succumb to US and Western rules.
Iran will also present itself as a partner in drawing-up Middle Eastern policies, through its European partnership in solving international crises. The atmosphere is heavy with pressure on Iran.
On one hand, the Israelis have completed their Air Force manoeuvre capabilities for deploying a large aerial force for long-distance operations.
The manoeuvres took place from Israel to Crete, which is equal in distance to Iran's uranium enrichment plant at Natanz from Israel. The Israelis made a point of leaking this information to the media to intensify pressure on Iran.
The UN Security Council has adopted two resolutions imposing financial and other sanctions on Iran over its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment.
These sanctions will entail financial penalties to be imposed on Iranian companies, establishments and banks. The sanctions will also impose travel restrictions on senior Iranian officials.
Sole target
On the other hand, we find that North Korea has demolished the cooling tower at its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, in a symbol of its commitment to talks on ending its nuclear programme.
This move has weakened the Iranian stance and made Iran the sole US target in relation to its armament capabilities.
The North Korean step has also weakened the US Hawks' stand in the US administration who opt for the use of force in dealing with the Iranian nuclear dossier.
Iran on the other hand made use of several issues to ward off the US disciplinary stick, even if that was for a limited time.
The US's preoccupation in Iraq and the huge role played by Iran there to further engage the US on the ground is one such issue.
The increasing activities of Taliban in Afghanistan, resulting in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation dispatching extra troops to Afghanistan, as confrontations increase, is another issue, made use of by Iran.
Additional issues include the increasing anti-war sentiments in the US, the reluctance of the region's countries to accept another war, which may result in a catastrophe, the increase of oil prices and Iran's threats to close off the Strait of Hormuz, depriving tankers that carry half of the world's daily oil of going through and the rejection by Russia and China of any military act against Iran.
Iran is also betting on the results of the upcoming US elections that are a few months away, hoping that whoever becomes the next US President will be less keen on using force against Iran. Iran needs to buy time until the next US elections, and this is the reason behind its partial acceptance of UN's demands.
The Iranian nuclear capabilities negotiator has proved his manoeuvring tactics and has succeeded in gaining time to the benefit of the Iranian nuclear programme's advancement, but has failed in erasing doubts about the actual targets of that programme.
The situation now is more dangerous than anytime before, where the options of resorting to force against Iran or dealing with the Iranian nuclear programme in a peaceful manner are equal.
Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.
