Top Palestinian negotiators came back from Washington recently frustrated that the Bush administration is losing interest in their cause. They were told to avoid embarrassing Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, lest they harm her bid to replace her boss in leading the Kadima party and the government in Israel.
There is a feeling among many in the region that something is being hastily done to mark the end of the terms of American, Israeli and Palestinian leaders. Signs of subtle overtures to facilitate a deal are numerous, but the most important - and dangerous - of all is the Palestinian infighting.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's departure in autumn might affect the timing of a surprise deal, depending on whether he is succeeded by Livni or ex-defence minister Shaul Mofaz from his Kadima party. Or whether early elections bring Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu or Labour's Ehud Barak to power.
The urgency is mainly from the Palestinian side, as it seems some of President Mahmoud Abbas's aides were active in negotiating a deal - any deal - before the end of his term. Such a deal, as Abbas said recently, would be legitimised by a referendum among Palestinian people. But it looks like it might not necessarily meet aspirations of the people.
As we have seen in Lebanon recently, whenever a resistance movement makes gains, internal fighting breaks out. Gaza and West Bank are now witnessing bitter internal Palestinian fighting.
Efforts will now focus on healing internal rifts rather than taking a united stance during negotiations with the occupying power. Actually the bloody Palestinian infighting and the political instability in Israel might have reduced the likelihood of a deal.
But if a surprise deal is possible, the price for that surprise would be dear, especially for Palestinians and the Arabs in general.
First, such a deal requires certain regional conditions. Some would argue that the change in American attitude towards Iran and its nuclear issue is a step in that direction, and the on-going indirect Syrian-Israeli talks sponsored by Turkey is another building block in what could be a general regional settlement, which would include even Lebanon.
Unconditional subjugation
Though Iran is always ready for any compromise, regardless of the strong public statements by its president, the other party to that crisis (Washington) is still insisting on unconditional subjugation.
Any progress on the Syrian-Israeli track might be linked to real progress in a compromise deal between Tehran and Washington. Yet, there are no signs that this is the case and hence a Palestinian-Israeli deal would be, in the least, premature.
The other important factor in a deal would be the possible escalation of tension through a strike (Israeli or American) on Iran's nuclear sites. As with previous American military involvements in the region, the Palestinian issue will get a boost - but this may not necessarily lead to anything tangible.
That happened in early 1990s when the Madrid conference followed the Gulf War, and again after the American invasion and occupation of Iraq. An attack on Iran would be be a catalyst for a new wave of interest in the core issue in the region.
The Palestinian - and Arab - side is always at receiving end, waiting for things to happen.
But loosing the initiative is not helpful at all, and even when the Arab world proposed a peace initiative through an Arab summit in Beirut, it was humiliatingly rejected by the Israelis and the Americans. So, there is no need for haste on their side.
If Arabs cannot take advantage of the struggle between Iran and the West to help their cause, they at least must not be part of a compromise that most likely would not be in their interest.
Oslo negotiations in mid-1990s brought the Palestinian leadership back from exile to the West Bank and Gaza, but it did not lead to a settlement. Most probably any deal now would not be much better stand than Oslo.
Dr Ahmad Mustafa is a London-based Arab writer.
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