Iran is a difficult neighbour in the Gulf that must be handled with kid gloves. Beyond its historic tendencies for assertive policies, which transformed it into an undeniable regional hegemon, Tehran now has nuclear ambitions that will not be curtailed with intimidation. How will Arab Gulf states respond?
Although the very idea of a nuclear Gulf region is anathema to many, it may be imperative for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) governments to contemplate the subject, not for the sake of adding fire to the fuel, but to empower vulnerable societies with the necessary deterrent wherewithal.
Lest one conclude that others will perpetually protect GCC countries, it behooves astute statesmen to rely on intrinsic abilities, rather than hope for the best. Short of equipping GCC countries with a potential nuclear deterrent, Iran may well emerge as the sole dominant regional power that will emasculate each and every state within a 2,000-miles radius.
Hints of Iranian ambition are many with the latest heard last week, when Deputy Foreign Minister for Education and Research Dr Manuchehr Mohammadi, questioned the very legitimacy of ruling regimes in, and perhaps survival of, GCC states.
Earlier, Ali Shamkhani, the military adviser to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, threatened to literally "burn the region, its military bases, even the oil wells of GCC states, if Iran ever came under an American military attack".
Over the years, similarly hostile pronouncements were uttered by successive Iranian officials, which always disappointed Gulf rulers.
As a matter of collective policy, the latter routinely called on Tehran to join them in developing strong ties based on mutual respect, common interests, and non-interference in the domestic affairs of neighbouring nations.
While Iran periodically joined the chorus to lower tensions, it nevertheless pursued single-mindedly an unabashed quest for full regional authority, while upbraiding GCC governments for nascent alliances with major Western powers.
Given past GCC responses towards analogous Iranian pronouncements, it was somewhat surprising to hear Secretary General Dr Abdul Rahman Al Attiyah retort with unusual bluntness.
A few days ago, Attiyah pointed out that Gulf states were "very disappointed and deeply concerned" on hearing derogatory remarks and threats, describing Mohammadi's remarks - ironically uttered in front of university teachers in Mashhad - as "irresponsible and blatant".
While Attiyah stressed that GCC governments would wait for clarification from the Iranian side, it was unlikely that anyone would hear back, or that Tehran would heed neighbourly pleas.
Disappointed
What is troubling in these exchanges is that GCC leaders are regularly disappointed but mechanically inclined to accept benevolent words lobbed towards them.
Tehran's behaviour in Bahrain before 1971, but especially in the 1981 coup attempt that planned to assassinate the late Shaikh Eissa and install a theocratic government, did not augur well.
Likewise, and with respect to the UAE islands of Abu Mousa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs (occupied since November 30, 1971), one simply wonders how long will this "occupation" last. Over the years, other incidents in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and even in Oman, portrayed the manners of a predator.
More recently, Iran successfully embarked on epochal changes in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine, which further depicted the type of political engagements that were conducive to instability and confrontation.
In fact, GCC governments' lukewarm responses to continued Iranian inroads in all three countries, but especially in Gaza, were nothing short of catastrophic.
Hezbollah and Hamas relied on Tehran's deep pockets to engage in questionable policies that destabilised their respective countries. Even in Iraq, regular Iranian interferences probably delayed the necessary reconciliation that the people of that hapless country sorely needed.
Against this display of power, what can GCC regimes and, more important, what can the peoples of the Gulf do to co-exist in peace?
First, no one should be under any illusion that Iran perceives the peoples of the Arabian Peninsula as nothing more than subjugated masses, which is untrue and unkind.
Second, Tehran cannot afford to forsake its revolutionary fervour, as that remains an unparalleled source of legitimacy. Consequently, Arab Gulf residents must accept to live with such fervour, even if a small minority wished to emulate the Iranian revolutionary credo.
Third, GCC leaders can no longer appease their way to permanent stability, but must embark on serious deterrence measures
Fourth and finally, GCC regimes cannot ensure such deterrence either by relying on conventional weapons, or on outside forces with limited regional interests -restricted to a steady access to petroleum resources at reasonable prices.
Under the circumstances, Arabs who are dedicated to the stability of their homelands need to adopt decisive measures, and keep flirting to a minimum. Rather then send contradictory messages to Iran, based on political miscalculations, Gulf rulers are quietly embarking on a serious quest for nuclear parity with their neighbour.
Naturally, GCC countries may assume immense confrontational risks, if they adopt a "tough" policy towards a nuclear Iran. Needless to say that nothing should be done to provoke Tehran, but even less should be done to placate its hegemonic aspirations.
Iran is an important power that deserves to be treated with utmost respect, but only if it treats its Arab Gulf neighbours with reciprocity.
Dr. Joseph A. Kechichian is a commentator and author of several books on Gulf affairs.
Your comments
Dear sir, I read your article, the comment you made and I quote, "Iran Perceives The People of Arabian..."
It should be said that Iranian Governement as you are not aware of the Iranian people's opnion on your subject.... Thank you
Cyrus
London,England
Posted: August 14, 2008, 07:24
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