Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki has always enjoyed the support of the US administration. He is also considered a friend of America, as declared by several key US officials on different occasions.
This US attitude is understandable, as Al Maliki has been contributing to Iraq's relative stability and peace, despite his failure to improve the service sector and his inability to put an end to corruption and misadministration in government establishments throughout the country.
During the past two years, Al Maliki was put to the test and he passed it. He was also able to prove his strength and ability by making some important decisions. The prime minister also demonstrated his capabilities by standing up to the Sadrist movement, which backed him in the first phase of his term as prime minister.
Along the way, Al Maliki made many enemies as well, due to his insistence on pursuing outlawed armed militias and for forcibly implementing the law.
The recent report about moves made by the US to remove Al Maliki from office should be taken seriously. It is an indicator to the waning relations between yesterday's partners and allies in the Iraqi political process. It is not a coincidence that this report reached the media at a time when relations between the Kurdish alliance and Al Maliki's government are on the downslide.
Those responsible for passing on the report to the media want to use it as a pressure tactic against Al Maliki's government. However, he is not expected to give up. The prime minister has dug in his heels on the future of the US military presence in Iraq, and has insisted that all foreign soldiers leave the country by a specific date in 2011.
Relationship
Iraq's relationship with Iran on the other hand is a sticky issue, and the US cannot guarantee the presence of a less friendly Iraqi government towards Iran in the near future.
The US has long-term plans in Iraq. Hence, it will not give up a pact that safeguards a legal status for keeping its troops in the country. At the same time, Al Maliki will also not budge an inch when it comes to the pact. According to the report's first scenario, it is easy to start procedures for a no-trust motion against the Iraqi prime minister.
Technically, this is possible by applying Article 61 of the Iraqi constitution's item 8, where the president of Iraq may submit a request to the Iraqi parliament to this effect.
One fifth of the Iraqi parliament members may also submit a similar request, which means 138 votes - a number that is not too difficult to secure.
The only group in the Kurdish alliance which may agree to such a request is the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC). But this issue is not that easy for the SIIC, as it entails ending their existence as a unified Kurdish bloc. They may not jeopardise it, considering the fact that the governorate council elections are around the corner.
The second scenario entails the US to persuade Al Maliki to resign. Al Maliki was democratically elected by Iraqis and the US did not raise any objections on the election process or its results.
Two years of Al Maliki's rule also show that he is not the type of person who can be pressurised into leaving his post.
It is equally difficult to predict what the Americans have up their sleeves to achieve their goals. It is not a secret that the US has succeeded several times before in changing governments and political systems all over the world. The third scenario entails political assassination, which again under the prevailing security situation in Iraq, is not something that is difficult to achieve.
Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.
Send us your comments
TERMS AND CONDITIONS
Gulf News may edit comments for length and clarity but will not change the tone of the message. Comments will only be accepted if all fields (including name) are filled correctly and the message isn't abusive, defamatory or offensive. The Gulf News website will only print your first name along with your comment. Please state in the message if you wish to remain anonymous. All comments sent may be forwarded for use in the Gulf News newspaper.
