Afghanistan is now the major test for the West's commitment to change in the Middle East. The substantial commitment to building and supporting a new Afghan government has become more significant to Western plans as time passed, despite all the headlines about Afghanistan being a "forgotten war" as the more dramatic events in Iraq grabbed the media attention.
The surge in 2007 in US troop numbers in Iraq, combined with the switch by several major Sunni tribes to fight Al Qaida, has built an atmosphere of increased confidence in Iraq, and the troubled Iraqi government of Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki is now working with more authority.
This optimism could all change very quickly if a renewed surge of violence challenges the government and coalition, but the present situation has allowed both candidates for the US presidency to talk of US troop reductions in a foreseeable time table. Presumptive Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, has been talking of switching forces to Afghanistan.
There are two linked operations going on in Afghanistan. The first is the US-led Operation Enduring Freedom, which is a combat operation against Al Qaida and its allies, and is the continuing response to the assault by terrorists on the World Trade Center in September 11, 2001. The aim of this war is the defeat and elimination of Al Qaida, but it has run into some serious problems as the resistance to the American-led coalition has hardened.
The other (but linked) action is the support to the Afghan government that the UN Security Council authorised Nato to provide in late 2003. The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has the broad support of many in the international community, including many Arab governments who would like to see a more stable Afghanistan emerge from the decades of chaos.
The United Arab Emirates contributes a substantial number of troops to the efforts in Afghanistan. Such committed action has become a distinguishing hallmark of UAE policy in the world's troubled spots, as the country goes well beyond what might be expected of it, by its willingness to commit its time and manpower in addition to helping with the funding. Other examples of such commitment include UAE forces committed to UN action in Somalia; the refugee camps in Kosovo in 1999, run by the UAE military with exemplary efficiency and cleanliness; and more camps for Afghan civilian refugees fleeing the fighting in 2001 and 2002.
Not going well
But the various operations in Afghanistan are not going well, despite often heroic work on the ground by troops and civilian national builders. One danger is that Nato support for the Afghan government has become support for the individual of the president, Hamid Karzai. Although he appears to be a decent man, he has been unable to build an effective coalition of Afghan parties, and he has also been dogged by allegations of being lax on corruption.
Central government in Afghanistan has never been strong, but after several years of waiting for Nato to do his job for him, Karzai is now thinking of giving up on achieving direct central authority, and instead implementing authority through tribal leaders in the regions. The tribes have always been powerful, but this shift will mean that he will formally recognise former war lords as part of the structure of the country, seriously weakening his own authority.
However, the major problem facing the continuing war in Afghanistan against Al Qaida is not in the country at all. It is just over the border in Pakistan's largely uncontrolled Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). This large area running for hundreds of miles along the border with Afghanistan has never been subject to effective Pakistani government control, and is run by its tribal leaders in their own traditional manner.
The problem facing the US and the Afghan governments is that the tribal leaders sympathise with the Taliban who support Al Qaida. As a result, FATA has become a free zone for Al Qaida, which means that any success in Afghanistan will fail as the Al Qaida fighters establish their bases in FATA with impunity from the US-led coalition and Afghan forces.
Doubts over Pakistan's willingness to follow through on its anti-Al Qaida policies were reinforced this weekend when Prime Minister Yousef Gilani issued a stunning statement announcing that the almost independent spy organisation, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), would be brought under more political control by reporting to the Interior Ministry. Within a day, Gilani was back-tracking with statements saying that the announcement had been misinterpreted and he only wanted more coordination.
The ISI helped set up the Taliban, and the fear is that they are currently still helping their creation in the FATA, despite what the elected Pakistani government wants. If the Pakistani government will not enforce its control over FATA, and remove the safe havens for Al Qaida and its Taliban allies, it is heading for a direct confrontation with the US.
No leadership in the White House can afford to let the Afghan war drift into failure, despite Nato's modest achievements and an ineffective Afghan president. It will suit all parties to find Pakistani failure to control FATA as a good excuse for any failure to achieve peace in Afghanistan. This must have been made clear to Gilani during his visit to Washington this week, and it will be interesting to see if he can do anything about it, against the wishes of the Pakistani military and intelligence establishment.
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