For the past few days, the Central Asian state of Turkmenistan has been the scene of a crackdown against what the authorities describe as "foreign elements" supposedly trying to foment violence.
An unknown number of people have been rounded up in three of the five provinces that make up this remote republic of five million people in Central Asia. According to reports, an unofficial state of emergency is in force in parts of the national capital Ashgabat.
What is going on? Why is a nation, kept outside history, so to speak, for the past two decades, is suddenly sucked into the vortex of violence witnessed in many other Muslim countries?
There are signs that Turkmenistan is facing three interlinked circles of violence.
The first circle consists of native groups of dissidents ranging from liberals to Islamists. These are trying to exploit the relative loosening of the oppressive regime created by the former president for life Safar-Ali Niyazov who died almost two years ago.
Niyazov was succeeded by his personal dentist Qurban-Qoli Berdi-Mohammadev, a mild-mannered personage pushed under the limelight by one of those accidents that give history part of its flavor.
According to experts in Turkmen affairs, the ruling elite, consisting mostly of former Communists, chose Berdi-Mohammadev as a stopgap leader pending the conclusion of a power struggle started before Niyazov's death.
At least one faction within the regime has always wanted to end the country's isolation and develop closer ties with the West especially the United States. Another faction, however, favours "special relations" with Russia and neighbouring Iran. Berdi-Mohammadev's rise to power represented a setback for the so-called moderates led by Prime Minister Ovezgeldy Ata'ev and the Popular Democratic Movement of Boris Shaikh-Muradov.
This intra-elite power struggle represents the second circle of violence.
In the past two years, Berdi-Mohammadev has tried to distance himself from the ruling elite and moved closer to the positions of the more moderate elements and reformists.
The new president has also started a cautious but determined purge of the administration of corrupt elements placed there by the Niyazov clan.
Berdi-Mohammadev may have caused even more resentment with his decision to ban the production, sale and use of a narcotic plant known as Nass that almost all male Turkmen, and some females, chew daily.
However, the move that may have angered Berdi-Mohammadev's political enemies the most is not related to domestic politics. The new president has served notice that he intends to develop an independent energy policy.
Controlled
Turkmenistan has a sixth of the world's reserves of natural gas plus vast quantities of oil. At present, the nation's gas industry is effectively controlled by the Russian giant Gasprom, itself under Kremlin control since 2002.
With no access to open seas, Turkmenistan has had three options when it came to routes for exporting its oil and gas.
The traditional route passes through Russia that has been exporting Turkmen gas to Europe for decades.
The other option is Iran. Turkmenistan is already selling some gas to Iran, but has rejected Tehran's offer of building pipelines to link the Turkmen gas-fields to the Gulf with a 1200-kilometer long pipeline.
The third option is building pipelines connecting Turkmenistan to the Indian Ocean via Afghanistan and Pakistan.
In 2007, Berdi-Mohammadev evoked a fourth option: the so-called Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP). The TCP will connect Turkmen gas and oil fields to the Black Sea with a pipeline passing through the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Turkey.
The TCP could end Turkmenistan's dependence on Russia, shut Iran out of the picture, and end all talk of pipelines through such unstable places as Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, it would mean a strategic realignment of the isolated republic away from Russia and Iran and towards the United States and Turkey.
This is precisely what Moscow and Tehran have vowed not to allow. It is to this that the third circle of violence may be related.
In his landmark visit to Turkey last month, Berdi-Mohammadev stopped short of giving the green light for the TCP. Nevertheless, he did drop more than broad hints that this is what he wanted.
Was the Islamist attack in Ashgabat an answer to that trip?
Is Turkmenistan becoming a new theatre of rivalry between Iran and Russia on one side and Turkey and the United States on the other?
If this is the case, we must assume that the arc of crisis that spans Pakistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and East Turkistan (Xingjian), has been extended north and west to include hitherto calm Turkmenistan.
Amir Taheri is an Iranian journalist based in Europe.
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