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The first thing to remember about British by-elections is that they are not a reliable guide to a general election, which is a totally different beast. Just because a governing party loses a by-election it does not mean they are automatically condemned to lose a general election. That may be small comfort to British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
The Crewe result was the first Conservative gain in a by-election since 1983 and the first from Labour since 1978. It is a terrible blow to his leadership. April may be the cruelest month in terms of British weather but May is the harshest month for Brown. The last three weeks have seen Brown hit by a dismal performance in local elections, unflattering books, sniping from the backbenches and now the Crewe result.
Of course, Brown can recover; he does not have to go to the country for two more years - plenty of time for the Tory leader to make a monumental gaffe, or for an international crisis to emerge. But unless Brown regains his reputation for competence his time in Number 10 Downing Street will be limited. Crewe has derailed Brown's leadership and there is no guarantee it can be put back on track.
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