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French President Nicolas Sarkozy is to be congratulated for achieving a ceasefire in Georgia. Although he acted as the president of the European Union (EU), Sarkozy's success is certainly not due to any influence that the EU might have, given its disastrous history in trying to stop conflicts, but far more due to his dynamic personality.
Sarkozy got Russia and Georgia to agree to return to the situation before the trouble started. The text agreed with the Russians included negotiations on the "future status" of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which was later changed by the Georgians to a promise for talks on ensuring "security and stability". Sarkozy is optimistic that he can keep both sides talking.
And there is a lot to talk about. In April this year, US President George W. Bush unequivocally assured Georgia and Ukraine of eventual Nato membership. In making this commitment, he ignored some important doubts among Nato members. Germany and France opposed Nato membership for Georgia, due to the disputes over South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and for Ukraine, as half the country is vigorously opposed to Nato membership.
Bush's firm commitments to Ukraine and Georgia greatly alarmed Russia, which it took as clear evidence of Nato's intentions to continue expanding eastwards, deep into Russia's sphere of influence. Moscow hates the feeling of being surrounded by its enemies, and it has warned Ukraine and Georgia that Nato membership is a step too far.
The consequences of Nato membership are far reaching, as the essence of membership is mutual defence. If Georgia had been a Nato member this week, all Nato members would have been bound to send their armed forces to fight the Russians.
Sarkozy's negotiations need to include Nato membership, and he should make clear that Georgia and Ukraine should settle their issues before they join Nato.
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