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Dubai: On the surface, it seems that if it was up to the vast majority of Arabs and rest of world, the results of the US presidential elections would have been announced long ago: a decisive victory for Democratic Presidential candidate Barack Obama.
This is true to a great extent. However, analysts say the picture might be different after interacting with Arabs at a deeper level.
They explain that both Obama and the Republican candidate John McCain seem similar when it comes to the Middle East, and their positions vis-a-vis the region's issues would be also the same, after both showed their support to Israel during their election campaigns.
"There is a big percentage among Arabs," Palestinian political scientist Nader Al Said said, "who think both Obama and McCain are similar."
Said, who heads a team of researchers and experts at ARWAD centre in Ramallah, noted the results of a recent poll by his centre.
It concluded that nearly 43.9 per cent of Palestinians don't believe the outcome of these elections will have an influence on the Palestinian situation. While 23.9 per cent said yes "to some extent", only 32.2 per cent said to "a large extent".
Another poll conducted by Dubai-based pan-Arab Al Arabiya satellite channel, showed nearly 62% of 12,625 responded to a question, "Whom you prefer not to win the US presidency?" by choosing the option "it doesn't matter, as both are strong supporters for Israel".
Al Said explained that what is important is the policies of countries, and not individuals. Many Arabs are aware of this fact, he said.
"The system is stronger than individuals [in the US]," he told Gulf News, in reference to the established decision-making institutions.
The Americans after all will vote on November 4 for their own interests and for the candidate they believe will fulfill his promises to solve their own problems. Also, Arabs realise that American internal problems, such as abortion, mortage, unemployment, poverty are the criteria by which Americans will vote, Al Said explained.
Iraq, because of its internal impact in the US, became one of the important issues in the American elections.
"Iraqi citizens," Iraqi writer Halim Al Aaraji said, "are much more concerned with their daily bread and butter than following and engaging with the US elections." But this doesn't mean that the Iraqis don't have preferences, he added.
Support of Iraqis
Obama has the support of many Iraqis, Al Aaraji told Gulf News "despite the fact that he chose Joe Biden as the Vice-presidential candidate."
Biden has alarmed the Iraqis several months earlier by introducing his idea of dividing Iraq into three parts: Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite.
The US-led invasion on Iraq in 2003 and its drastic consequences on the country and the region, is one of the main reasons for tarnishing America's image in the past eight years. Many analysts and observers believe after Iraq war any Democratic candidate will enjoy the support of non-Americans.
Meanwhile, a possible McCain's victory "is alarming" to the Middle East, voted the majority of audience at the recent session of Doha Debates, which are conducted in cooperation with BBC and funded by the Qatari Foundation.
"Like Bush," Hafez Al Mirazi, a veteran Arab-American journalist said, McCain "wouldn't talk to his opponents and like Bush he shoots first and talks later."
However, Danielle Pletka, Vice-President for Foreign and Defence Policy Studies at the American Institute for Public Policy Research defended McCain's tough tone.
He would not "walk away" from Iraq leaving the region to return to sectarian violence, she said in the debate expected to be broadcasted on November 1 and 2. Obama, on the other hand, was constantly changing his opinions and had even offered to negotiate "unconditionally" with Iran, she said.
Iranians, both officials and analysts, said they prefer not to comment on the future relations with Iran before the headlines of the new US administration's foreign policy are drawn.
Almost two thirds of Arabs would choose stability over democracy, according to a poll conducted by Qatar Foundation.
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