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Tehran: When the United States decided to lead a war against Iraq five years ago, it was unwittingly taking a decision to pave the way for an increasing Iranian influence in the region, analysts and politicians in Tehran said.
And when Washington started building a political structure in Iraq, it was also unintentionally aiding Iran and raising concerns among other Arab states in the region, including its allies, they added.
"The outcome of September 11 [attacks on the United States] and its impact on the Middle East turned out to be consistent [with Iran's national interests]," said Herimidas Bovand, Law and Political Science Professor at Tehran University, in an interview with Gulf News, in reference to ousting Taliban regime in Afghanistan to the east of Iran, and the overthrow of Saddam Hussain's regime in Iraq to the west of Iran. Both Sunni regimes were foes of the Shiite-ruled Iran.
Launching a war on Iraq was based on the existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and former Iraqi regime's links with Al Qaida. Both turned out to be untrue a few years later.
Also, when the United States established a political system in Iraq after the collapse of Saddam's regime, where Shiites were given a bigger role, it was "by accident" serving Iran's interest as well, Bovand said.
The growing Shiite role in Iraq and the presence of politicians who enjoy good relations with Iran in senior positions, coupled with a declining role for the Sunnis in Iraq have alarmed many Sunni Arab governments.
The Arab fears grew bigger with the rapid deterioration of the security situation in Iraq.
'Regional power'
Failure to end the daily cycle of violence in Iraq has put Washington in a predicament while the United States has repeatedly accused Tehran of aiding the attacks against US troops and Iraqi targets.
"Iran has benefited from more than one American failure in the world. May be in Iraq, its [benefit] was more obvious and made Iran look like a regional power," said Iranian analyst Mohammad Sadeq Hussaini in an interview with Gulf News.
At the same time, the "lack of an Arab role, as if it has resigned or been absent [from what is going on in Iraq] has helped the Iranian plan to be the substitute for the failed American plan ... add to that, the smart Iranian political performance." These are all factors which contributed to "make [sure] Iran has a major say in the region's issues", Hussaini said.
The continued instability in Iraq is not in Iran's favour and vice versa, noted analysts. They said Tehran would benefit once the situation in Iraq goes back to normal. These include "oil, religious tourism, agriculture and transit [routes] to Iranian products to other parts of the world", said Musaib Al Nuaimi, Editor-in-Chief of Al Wefaq, an Iranian Arabic language newspaper.
US 'exaggeration'
Iranian analysts refuted claims that Tehran has shifted its problems with the United States to Iraq, saying it was the opposite.
"When a great power arrives with its super military arsenal to a neighbouring country of Iran ... Iran can't keep silent because its national security would be endangered," said Hussaini. "Iran is in a state of defence."
While acknowledging the Iranian influence in Iraq, some analysts in Tehran said the United States is "exaggerating" the influence to take advantage of it in other issues, including its tension with Iran over Tehran's nuclear programme.
"[I believe] the Iraqi Shiites' devotion and dedication to Arabs is much stronger than to Shiite [Iran]," said Professor Bovand, a former member of the Iranian delegations to the democratisation talks with Iraq in 1975 and at the Iranian delegation to the UN before the 1979 revolution. "And I do believe that even if we assume that the Shiite dedication is with the Islamic Republic, it will be a short honeymoon because of the psychological and historical element."
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