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Beirut: Israel seems content to keep Iran and the rest of the world guessing uneasily about whether and when it might attack the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities.
It has done little to douse speculation stoked by a big Israeli air force exercise last month, an Israeli cabinet minister's remark that military action was "inevitable" and a prediction by former US official John Bolton that this might occur in the final weeks of President George W. Bush's term.
Iran derides the chatter as "psychological warfare" and threatens dire retaliation if any assault materialised.
Gulf Arab states whose oil exports could be among Iranian reprisal targets shuffle nervously, as crude prices push higher.
The Israelis may believe that mere talk of military action can spur Iran to alter its behaviour, or at least prompt tougher international action to induce Tehran to curb its nuclear quest - which the Iranians say is only to produce energy, not bombs.
Ephraim Kam, deputy director of the Jaffee Centre for Strategic Studies at Tel Aviv University, said Israel preferred for now to let diplomatic pressure run its course.
"The talk [of military options] is designed to project deterrence, pressuring the Europeans to increase their pressure in the hope this will curb Iran," he told Reuters in Jerusalem.
Yet the Israeli military is presumably honing contingency plans, given Israel's deeply rooted fears that a nuclear-armed Iran would threaten its existence - even though the Jewish state has its own powerful, if undeclared, nuclear deterrent.
"The Israel Defence Forces should be ready for all options," former army chief of staff Moshe Yaalon said.
Bolton, who advocates using force against Iran, sees little chance that the Bush administration will do so, especially after a US intelligence report last year said Tehran had halted work on a nuclear bomb, while forging on with other atomic activity.
Leaked reports of a major Israeli military exercise over the Mediterranean on June 2 amplified debate over Israel's posture.
Some defence analysts argue that even a full-scale US air campaign would only delay Iran's nuclear plans by a few years - Israeli forces operating far from home could not hope to destroy all of its many dispersed and fortified atomic installations.
Mohammad Al Baradei, head of the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency, warned last month an attack on Iran would turn the Middle East into a "fireball" and prompt Tehran to try to build nuclear bombs as fast as possible.
But Israel might decide to go ahead anyway after weighing all the risks of retaliation, regional instability and damage to the world economy against what it sees as an existential threat.
When Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz said last month that strikes on Iran looked unavoidable in view of that country's nuclear progress, critics at home accused him of exploiting strategic security issues for political gain.
The United States has repeatedly shielded its Israeli ally from censure by the UN Security Council for military action against its Palestinian and other Arab foes. A strike on Iran, however dire the consequences, might be no different.
Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer now at the Brookings Institution, said senior Israeli military planners believed a mission to dent Iran's nuclear programme was feasible.
The talk [of military options] is designed to project deterrence, pressuring the Europeans to increase their pressure in hope this will curb Iran."
Israel has around 500 combat-ready warplanes, including advanced US-made F-15 and F-16 jets capable of reaching western Iran for a bombing run - further, should aerial refuelling be an option.
Onboard stealth and radar-jamming equipment could allow the warplanes to overfly Arab territory en route to a sneak attack in Iran, and withstand ground fire. Armed with ground-penetrating "bunker buster" bombs, Israeli jets could significantly damage key nuclear sites. Satellite guidance systems would allow for bombs to be released at high altitude and great distances, perhaps with some of the planes remaining outside Iranian airspace. The Israeli air force also commands ballistic missiles, a capability shrouded in secrecy. Israel is assumed to have dozens of long-range Jericho missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads as far as the Gulf. Conventional Jerichos could damage targets in Iran, but the salvoes would lack the element of surprise given the likelihood of launches being immediately spotted, and reported on, in Israel.
Ground
Israel does not border Iran, making most ground forces irrelevant to any future war. Should there be Israeli air strikes on Iran, commandos could be inserted to mark targets and monitor the damage to them.
Special forces could also be deployed to hunt and destroy Iranian missile batteries before they can fire at Israel in retaliation.
Sea
Israel has three German-made, diesel-powered Dolphin submarines that dock at its Haifa port and are in theory capable of reaching the shores of Iran.
Each Dolphin has 10 torpedo tubes, four of them expanded in girth at Israel's request. Some analysts believe this was to accommodate cruise missiles capable of reaching Iran from the Mediterranean, or with supersonic engines allowing them to defeat enemy air defences. Cruise missiles are not, however, considered powerful enough to cause significant damage to fortified installations.
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