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Nairobi: Conventional wisdom long held that Somalia was so inhospitable that even Al Qaida gave up trying to gain a foothold amid feuding clans, erratic warlords and a wily population hardened by years of anarchy.
Now, in the wake of an aggressive US counter-terrorism programme that has alienated many Somalis, there are signs that Al Qaida might have its best chance in years to win over Islamic hardliners in the Horn of Africa nation.
After once denying or downplaying links to the terrorist network, a senior leader of Somalia's most notorious Islamic militia now acknowledges that his group has long-standing ties to Al Qaida and says he is seeking to forge a closer relationship.
"We are negotiating how we can unite into one," said Muktar Robow, a top military commander of Shabab, which the US State Department designated a terrorist organisation this year. "We will take our orders from Shaikh Osama Bin Laden, because we are his students."
Merging with Al Qaida operatives in the region makes sense, he said, given the recent US crackdown, including a May airstrike that killed Shabab's then-commander. "Al Qaida is the mother of the holy war in Somalia," he said. "Most of our leaders were trained in Al Qaida camps. We get our tactics and guidelines from them. Many have spent time with Osama Bin Laden."
US officials say it is unclear whether Shabab's threat is real or just anti-Western rhetoric intended to rattle US intelligence officials.
Analysts note that Al Qaida faces the same challenges that prevented it from establishing a Somalia base before, including power struggles among Somalia's Islamists, competition from local clan networks and differences between those seeking to keep attacks inside Somalia and those favouring Al Qaida's global agenda.
Growing links
US Ambassador Michael E. Ranneberger acknowledged growing links between Shabab and Al Qaida, but he said ties were in the early stages.
Robow said Shabab had been boosting its forces in recent months with an influx of fighters from all around the world, including Kenya, Sudan, Iraq, Afghanistan, Algeria, Indonesia, Chechnya and even the United States. Al Jazeera recently aired footage of a masked Shabab commander who called himself "Abu Mansur Al Amriki" and spoke with an American accent. His identity could not be confirmed.
Robow declined to comment on the number of foreigners or the size of Shabab's militia. One analyst recently estimated its forces at between 1,000 and 3,000 fighters.
Richard Barno, counterterrorism analyst at the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia's capital cautioned that Al Qaida still faces resistance from Somalia's major clans, which have been less interested in radical anti-Western attacks and frown upon Al Qaida's signature largescale attacks, particularly when they result in civilian casualties. Clan leaders have been reluctant to send their men to fight with Al Qaida outside Somalia, he said.
"Any moving to Al Qaida might alienate the clans," Barno said. "And they can't afford to do that, because the clans provide their foot soldiers."
Robow said US.counterterrorism efforts over the past two years only strengthened his group.
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