|
Damascus: Syria is shrugging off the absence of regional heavyweights from Saturday's summit which it says will have no impact on the outcome, even as analysts warn that it could deepen Arab rifts.
Jordan on Friday became the latest US ally to announce it would send a low-level delegation to the Damascus summit, following the example of Saudi Arabia and Egypt which blame Syria for the political crisis crippling Lebanon.
The existence of the Arab summit is evidence that moderate Arabs have won over nervous stances, but this does not mean that the Arab nations will manage to settle the current divisions peacefully and politically, says an analyst.
Abdul Wahab Badrakhan, a writer and news analyst who is attending the summit, predicts a war aimed at correcting the imbalance against Israel and the US.
Enough disagreement
He said the moderates, lead by the GCC states - excluding Saudi Arabia - believe that there are enough disagreements in the Arab world and adding one more is a dangerous and irresponsible act.
The attendance of Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain and the strong representation of the UAE at the summit means that the leaders of five out of six GCC countries are not willing to see the Arab house collapse.
"Syria was facing a great challenge [in trying to convene the summit]. If the leaders who confirmed their attendance at the conference met with no problems, then we could say that Syria fulfilled its commitment," he said.
But the summit cannot be considered a full success for Syrian diplomacy because of leaders who boycotted the summit or downgraded the representation of their countries.
"We should not forget that the leaders of the most powerful states in the Arab world, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, are not attending the summit because of reasons related to their disagreements with Syrian leaders. The efficiency of the summit is expected to be less than what Arabs expect from a gathering like this. The absent leaders are the spine of the official Arab regime and Syria alone can not fulfil the gap in the system," Badrakhan said.
"Arabs should remember that their main problem is the confrontation between the two powerful leagues in the region. The first is the US axis against Iranian projects in the region. Both the US and Iran have their own reasons to stand against one another but Arabs are divided between the two."
"I wish this summit [would] discuss how Arabs could form their own line, away from clashes of interest between the US and Iran."
Badrakhan said Arabs are not divided because of personal differences amongst their leaders or due to ideological disparity. "They are divided because some Arabs have decided to go after the US option, while others saw their interests best served with following the Iranians.
'Level of explosion'
"The situation has reached the level of explosion and I personally can not rule out a military confrontation between an element in the US axis with one from the Iranian side. Israel is eager to restore its image as the most powerful force in the region following the July 2006 war, while the US is in dire need to restore the imbalance in the region that tilted recently towards Iran," Badrakhan said.
Geographically, he said such a war will not take place in the Gulf because the US seems have no desire to see a confrontation in the oil-rich region.
"In my opinion, Israel will try to cut off the Iranian supply line to Hezbollah through Al Biqaa and send a strong message to Syria. The message is Syria should either leave the Iranian league or face the consequences," he said.
- With inputs from Agencies
|
