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New Delhi: There are good enough reasons for the Congress party and its Marxists allies to call for a truce since early general elections may harm both of them.
A survey conducted across the country has come to the conclusion that early polls will propel Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati as the real kingmaker.
Both the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and the opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could end up with almost identical figures in a hung Parliament.
According to the findings of an exclusive "Mood of the Nation" pre-poll survey conducted by C Voters and ICMR, neither the UPA nor the NDA would be in a position to cobble up the requisite number of 272 to form the next government, forcing them to look for support elsewhere.
Crucial role
The survey predicts that in the event of the nation going to polls at this stage, the Left Front that sustains the minority UPA government with its crucial outside support would end up being the biggest loser.
Uttar Pradesh chief minister Mayawati's BSP would replace the Left Front as the third largest party, making her the kingmaker if not the queen itself. BSP, which has 15 lawmakers in the present Lok Sabha, may end up having 46 seats, while the Left Front's share would come down from the existing 59 to 42.
The UPA and the NDA may end up bagging between 180-190 seats, in which NDA may enjoy a marginal upper hand considering it will get 33 per cent of the popular votes, one per cent more than the UPA.
"In the permutations and combinations that would pan out post-elections, the BSP would play a crucial role in every conceivable scenario, supporting the UPA or the NDA from outside or forming a government in tandem with the Third Front [barring the Samajwadi Party], with inside or outside support of the Left Front and the Congress," the yet-to-be published survey report says.
Deep differences
Deep differences between the Congress party and the Left Front over the contentious Indo-US civil nuclear deal have created a scenario wherein going for fresh polls is seen as the only solution to break the logjam, although Prime Minister Manmohan Singh reiterated on Wednesday that despite the government's commitment to the nuclear deal, they would not sacrifice the government on this issue.
The next general elections are one year away in the normal course, though early polls towards this year-end still loom large.
Interestingly, all efforts of the UPA government of late to woo the masses seem to have failed.
A large segment of the voters are angry with the mounting inflation and the resultant rise in prices of essential commodities. Relief to the middle class through income tax concessions, waiver of farmers' loan to the tune of Rs5,500 billion (Dh500 billion) and the new pay commission recommendations increasing staff salaries seem to have failed to help the UPA.
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