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Bangalore: The stage is set for a battle of nerves today between an upbeat Congress and a defensive Janata Dal-Secular (JD-S) in the first phase of assembly elections in Karnataka. The balloting will see the fortunes of about 950 candidates being decided by some 17.3 million voters in 89 constituencies across 11 southern districts.
The Old Mysore region, considered a traditional bastion of the Congress and the JD-S and the waterloo of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) - a strong contender for power this time round - holds the key to the new government likely to come to power by the end of the month.
During the 2004 assembly elections, of the 89 assembly segments, the JD-S captured 36 while the Congress managed to win 28 seats. The BJP sprung a surprise by bagging 15 seats, including five in Bangalore.
The presence of the Bahujan Samaj Party in the fray is likely to hurt the Congress and the JD-S more as it looks to win over the Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and the backward classes. During the last elections, the Congress claimed it had narrowly lost out in about 20 constituencies in the region solely because of the BSP.
Although the number of constituencies remains the same even after delimitation, the demographic profile of the electorate and the rigid caste combination in a predominant Vokkaliga region will define the voting patterns in semi-urban and rural areas.
Caste arithmetic
The Congress has fielded candidates keeping in view the caste arithmetic in each constituency and chance of victory.
In contrast, the battle for urban votes in the country's information technology hub and state capital Bangalore - where the number of constituencies has shot up by a whopping 75 per cent to 28 from 16 in the 224-member assembly after delimitation - is being waged on issues such as infrastructure development, civic amenities, stability and good governance.
"The first phase of the poll will be a testing time for the JD-S as well as the Congress, with the BJP and BSP snapping at their heels. In the absence of winnable candidates for the BJP in many constituencies, barring in Mysore and Bangalore, the Congress and JD-S are betting on their traditional voters. Both the parties are, however, wary of the BSP making a difference to chances of winning and losing," said political analyst Trilochan Shastri.
A fractured verdict in 2004 and the collapse of three coalition governments in a span of 42 months leading to an early poll after a spell of president's rule have been a blessing in disguise for the Congress to seek a vote on the stability plank. The party is also touting various socio-economic schemes implemented by the United Progressive Alliance at the Centre, including the waiver of farm loans.
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