|
New Delhi: The future of India's coalition government and a controversial nuclear deal with the United States will be decided on Tuesday after a confidence vote in parliament.
The ruling coalition may sail through the crucial trust vote even as the opposition accused it of horse-trading.
A series of defections and the likelihood of at least 10 opposition lawmakers abstaining may ensure that the 50-month-old Manmohan Singh government survives.
Singh has angered his left-wing and communist allies by pushing ahead a nuclear accord with the United States, which his government insists is essential to meet the energy needs of India's fast-growing economy.
Leftists, who triggered the vote by withdrawing their support, say the deal ties traditionally non-aligned India too closely with the US, and would compromise the country's nuclear weapons programme.
Special session
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh introduced a one-line motion seeking the trust of the House at the beginning of the two-day special session of parliament.
"It is unfortunate that the government's attention has been diverted at a time when it was grappling with inflation as a result of rising prices of essential commodities," Singh said while introducing the motion.
A fiery debate marked by occasional acrimony between the treasury and option benches followed the introduction of the trust motion.
Leader of Opposition Lal Krishna Advani accused the government of indulging in horse-trading and compared the government to a patient fighting for survival in the ICU.
He reiterated his party's stand that if the Bharatiya Janata Party comes to power it would renegotiate the nuclear deal to make it a treaty between two equals.
Voting is scheduled to take place later this evening after the reply to the debate by Singh. All major parties have issued whips. However, some cross voting and abstentions are expected.
Political analysts say that barring the unexpected, the government should manage to cross the hurdle and go ahead with making the nuclear deal operational.
Likely scenario
If the government wins the trust vote:
- With its majority, the government can confidently go to the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Suppliers Group and try to make the Indo-US nuclear deal operational before President George W. Bush's term comes to an end.
--It can initiate several economic liberalisation measures that it wasn't able to in the past 50 months due to pressure from the Left Front.
- It can turn its attention to fighting soaring inflation and sharp rise in prices of essential commodities.
- It can choose the timing of the next general elections. Instead of the original schedule (April-May, 2008) it can opt for it anytime between November 2008 and March 2009, to cash in on the expected fall in prices due to good monsoon rains.
If the government fails to win the trust vote:
- Manmohan Singh will resign as prime minister the same evening. He will be asked to continue as the caretaker prime minister by the president.
- President will initiate dialogue with other parties to see if any of them have the numbers to form an alternative government.
- Principal opposition Bharatiya Janata Party will not stake claim due to lack of support.
- Bahujan Samaj Party-Left combine may seek Congress's support to form government. But the Congress is unlikely to offer support.
- BSP chief Mayawati, who fancies her chances of becoming prime minister, may try to split the Congress and Samajwadi Party.
- Manmohan Singh cabinet may recommend dissolution of the Lok Sabha. Constitutional experts say the president is bound to accept the recommendation even after the government loses trust motion.
Send us your comments
TERMS AND CONDITIONS
Gulf News may edit comments for length and clarity but will not change the tone of the message. Comments will only be accepted if all fields (including name) are filled correctly and the message isn't abusive, defamatory or offensive. The Gulf News website will only print your first name along with your comment. Please state in the message if you wish to remain anonymous. All comments sent may be forwarded for use in the Gulf News newspaper.
|
