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Vienna/New Delhi: India feels Pakistan might abstain even if it does not vote against the Indian safeguards agreement that comes up for approval by the 35-member board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna on Friday.
But confident of a smooth run at the IAEA board meeting, irrespective of Pakistan's support, India has already started consulting with other countries on scheduling the next stage - the waiver from the Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG). Indications are the crucial meeting of the NSG will also be held in Vienna between Aug 21 to 23.
"We are looking at a 34-0 result at tomorrow's meeting of the IAEA board of governors," an official of India's Ministry of External Affairs, who did not wish to be identified, said.
Best-case scenario
"The best-case scenario for us obviously is if there is no voting and the agreement is supported by the IAEA board unanimously," he added.
The official, however, pointed out that though there has been intense pressure on Pakistan from the US and others not to block the finalisation of the Indian safeguards agreement, the likely scenario for today will be for Pakistan to abstain.
"We will be pleasantly surprised if after making its opposition to the agreement public, Pakistan does not seek a voting, even if to abstain. It may not vote against the agreement but it may still abstain to record its position," the official added.
What might happen today is that many countries might express their views, including some of their misgivings, on certain provisions of the draft agreement. After it is debated and discussed, the IAEA chair will ask the members whether they wanted a vote on it. Pakistan may then seek a vote to put on record that it had abstained and not voted for the agreement.
India has already briefed the other members of the board about the safeguards agreement it wanted to sign with the IAEA. On Wednesday, Department of Atomic Energy chairman Anil Kakodkar met the IAEA director-general Mohammad el-Baradei and discussed the proposed agreement.
But officials pointed out that while they are confident that the "overwhelming mood" in the IAEA board was for India, the only area of worry is whether there was any meaningful opposition from other members. India's worry is particularly over the 19 members of the board who are also in the NSG. If they oppose the safeguards agreement at the IAEA meeting, there is every chance that they may carry this position when the NSG meets.
Importantly, the 45-member NSG takes all their decision through consensus and unlike the IAEA board there is no provision for voting on a crucial issue.
India is not a member of the NSG, but its forthcoming meeting will be crucial for it since the waiver from the group is required before the India-US agreement on civilian nuclear energy cooperation can be taken up to the US Congress for final approval.
Pakistan is a member of IAEA's board of governors that prefers to take decisions by consensus, although it has a provision for vote by simple majority.
Civilian nuclear pact
- Why is it necessary: Making India's declared civilian reactors - 14 out of 22 - subject to regular IAEA non-proliferation inspections is required for commerce with NSG members, including Washington.
India has been embargoed by the NSG for having never joined the NPT and test-detonating nuclear devices in 1974 and 1998.
- Key passage in preamble of agreement: "An essential basis of India's concurrence to accept Agency safeguards ... is the conclusion of international cooperation arrangements creating the necessary conditions for India to obtain ... reliable, uninterrupted and continuous access to fuel supplies from companies in several nations, as well as support for an Indian effort to develop a strategic reserve of nuclear fuel to guard against any disruption of supply... India may take corrective measures to ensure uninterrupted operation of its civilian nuclear reactors in the event of disruption of foreign fuel supplies."
- Main operative section deal: It resembles pacts the IAEA has with over 150 nations but tailored for a non-NPT state where IAEA rights are more limited. The other non-NPT nations are Pakistan and Israel, which also have military nuclear sectors off limits to outside monitoring.
- Misgiving: Some Western nations fear the "corrective measures" clause could let India unilaterally cancel safeguards if foreign fuel supplies were cut off in response to another atomic bomb test.
IAEA inspections in any country are meant to apply "in perpetuity" unless ended by mutual agreement, which has never happened, but the plan appears to link them to constant fuel supply, which the IAEA cannot guarantee, critics say.
They say the draft blurs distinctions between civilian and military nuclear applications. A paragraph in the operative section says India may remove from IAEA purview "any special fissionable material" - or bomb-grade - separated from material produced in a safeguarded fuel reactor.
- Response: IAEA inspection and legal experts who negotiated safeguards coverage with India say it meets global standards and have recommended the 35-nation Board of Governors approve the plan.
The reference to corrective steps is "preambular language" reflecting India's special context and does not dilute the application of safeguards outlined in the operative section.
Board members generally see the extension of inspections to most Indian facilities as a net positive for non-proliferation, despite qualms about language tilted for India and, more broadly, opening the world nuclear market to a non-NPT state.
- Will the board approve the agreement? Yes, likely by consensus or overwhelming majority vote.
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