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Dubai: The pressure on President Pervez Musharraf is mounting for a dignified retreat and he will have to decide if he is "a lame duck, ceremonial president or whether he would prefer to go home," says Najam Sethi, editor-in-chief of the Friday Times.
In an exclusive interview with Gulf News Radio while on a visit to Dubai, Sethi spoke about the political situation in Pakistan and Indo-Pakistan trade relations.
Gulf News: Is Nawaz Sharif of the PML-N, waiting to be the next prime minister?
Najam Sethi: You know, the cynics have said that he wants an early election, and he wants this current government to be discredited, he wants to see the back of President Musharraf, the back of the current judiciary, and possibly the back of the Peoples Party and a new election would create the conditions for that.
But he's not exactly gone about doing that. He could've boycotted the elections and joined the confrontations. He didn't, instead he chose to contest the elections, and he's been vindicated that a non-confrontationist attitude is perhaps a better way to achieving one's objectives than a confrontationist one.
Now people have said that he will not ever sit with Asif Ali Zardari because he said he won't get his people to be sworn in by Musharraf, because he doesn't recognise him and doesn't recognise this post-November 3 Constitution. However, at the end of the day he's gone and done that. He was in parliament smiling away for all he's worth and he's clearly onboard.
My own assessment is that with no small thanks to foreign powers, both Nawaz and Zardari possibly may have given a commitment that they will not try and rock the boat, to the extent of destabilising Pakistan and Musharraf, which is to say that possibly for at least a year or so, Nawaz may not be on the lookout for a fresh elections. Which is why he's joined government. I rather suspect that in a year or two you'll find that perhaps the Finance Ministry goes to Nawaz Sharif to say that he and his party will have to come up with solutions to very difficult questions. And possibly be put on the mat by people.
So I think in the short term Nawaz Sharif is not going to look for a confrontation with Zardari or with Musharraf. But who can say about the medium to the long term? I think I would be very surprised if this current arrangement lasts beyond a year or so at the outset and then these two parties will take their own bearings and perhaps become competitive again and be partners.
President Musharraf's opposition has a substantial representation, and Sharif has already been talking about curtailing powers by revoking the contentious Clause 58 (2b). Haven't we been down that road before? Is something going to come out of that, are we seeing a cancellation or a redundancy of the National Security Council?
I think both parties are committed to knocking those powers out, but I don't think they're going to get into a confrontation straight away. I think they will have to wait to get a majority in the Senate elections next year before they have a majority in both houses of parliament. I think once that majority is obtained, they will float a Bill saying they will take those powers away. So at that time if Musharraf is still around, he will then have to decide if he wants to be a ceremonial president, or whether he would prefer to go home."
It has been a year since the previous Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry was dismissed, but not much is being said about him coming back. Do you as a journalist expect that he may be coming back?
I think that as far as the lawyers movement is concerned, they certainly want all the judges restored, especially and including the chief justice.
I think one of the reasons for that is that the whole crisis was provoked by the answer of the chief justice; evidently he is the main figure in this whole thing so they want him to come back.
But by that same criterion, the fact of the matter is that if he were to come back, President Musharraf could not hope to survive. And I think Sharif and Aitzaz Ahsan have decided that they don't want to get into a confrontation mode right now. I presume then that this resolution that parliament will pass in 30 days time, to restore the judiciary is a statement of intent rather than a policy position that will take place 30 days from now.
That is to say that they may yet devise a method whereby in the next few months some of these judges are told not by executive order but with the co-operation of the president of the current Supreme Court.
Which is to say maybe the question of the former chief justice may be left hanging in the balance until such time that both parliament and the judiciary decide either to find him a different occupation or to restore him, which means to get rid of Musharraf. So I think that will be the last item on the agenda rather than the first.
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