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Moscow: When limousines sweep through the Kremlin gates after tomorrow's presidential handover, the identity of their occupants taking up key posts may help answer a question troubling investors and foreign capitals alike.
Who will really be running Russia, with its booming $1.3 trillion economy and the world's second-biggest nuclear arsenal?
Dmitry Medvedev will take the presidential oath; but Vladimir Putin, his power anchored in networks and factions that shape the Russian state, will be a formidable prime minister. Some observers say Putin, not his protege, will hold sway. "The weight of Medvedev's people and their positions in the presidential administration will indicate whether Putin intends to fully remain in control of the situation," said Pavel Salin, an analyst with Russia's Centre for Current Politics.
The rivalry is not just over power but policy too.
Kremlin-watchers say if Putin's people - many of them hawks with security service backgrounds - remain dominant, the state will keep its hefty role in the economy and Moscow will continue to have strained relations with the West.
But some predict that if Medvedev succeeds in installing his loyalists - most of them with law or business backgrounds - in key posts, there is a chance he will free up the economy and take a more conciliatory approach to foreign policy.
There is feverish speculation in Moscow's political salons about who will take the key posts.
PRESIDENT: Head of state
- Office in the Kremlin.
- Commander-in-chief of armed forces - in charge of Russia's nuclear weapons.
- Sets direction of foreign and domestic policies.
- Prime minister reports directly to the president.
- Appoints and sacks PM and other federal ministers, subject to parliamentary approval.
- All Russian spy services report directly to the president.
- Controls the Presidential Administration, based in the Kremlin.
- Controls and appoints the Security Council, which oversees Russia's defence and security policies.
- Can call a state of emergency or impose military law if he believes there is a threat to national security.
PRIME MINISTER: Heads cabinet of ministers
- Office located in Moscow's White House.
- Becomes acting president if the president "is incapacitated and cannot fulfil his responsibilities", according to Russia's Constitution.
- Civilian ministries such as education and health report to the prime minister.
- Implements domestic and foreign policy as well as presidential decrees, laws and international agreements.
- Coordinates economic and fiscal policy, manages federal property.
- Sets prices for gas, electricity and domestic transport.
- Controls social policy, labour policy, migration and family policies.
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