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Washington: California probably will experience an earthquake of 6.7 magnitude or greater in the next 30 years, according to a study released on Monday.
The study marks a rare effort to forecast the likelihood of a major temblor in a state known as "earthquake country." The forecast is significant because such a large temblor could cause billions of dollars in damage as well as loss of life.
Study participants include the US Geological Survey, the California Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center.
The researchers found that the chances of a magnitude 7.5 or greater temblor in the next 30 years is 46 per cent. They determined such a quake probably would occur in Southern California.
According to a report from the researchers, the forecasts were made by combining "information from seismology, earthquake geology and geodesy (measuring precise locations on the Earth's surface). For the first time, probabilities for California having a large earthquake in the next 30 years can be forecast statewide."
New techniques
"This new, comprehensive forecast advances our understanding of earthquakes and pulls together existing research with new techniques and data," said USGS geophysicist and lead scientist Ned Field. "Planners, decision makers and California residents can use this information to improve public safety and mitigate damage before the next destructive earthquake occurs."
In 2006, seismologists met in San Francisco to discuss the 100th anniversary of the great San Francisco quake. Presentations suggested that California needed to do more to prepare for the next major temblor.
First, future quakes could do more damage than past ones because the population of California continues to increase and there are more buildings in areas near fault lines on soft ground susceptible to liquefaction. Second, the state must do more to retrofit vulnerable buildings.
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