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Washington: An earthquake with a magnitude similar to the one that recently rocked China is inevitable in southern California, said the US Geological Survey and the California Geological Survey.
The new study warned in a report that the quake could cause about 2,000 deaths, 50,000 injuries and $200 billion (Dh734 billion) in damage if it happened today,
In the study, "The ShakeOut Scenario", scientists examined the effects of a hypothetical 7.8-magnitude earthquake along the San Andreas fault on the region's physical infrastructure and economic and social systems.
"The question is not if but when southern California will be hit by a major earthquake - one so damaging that it will permanently change lives and livelihoods in the region," the report said. "Unlike many other faults, the southern San Andreas fault produces no small earthquakes."
The study - prepared by a multi-disciplinary team that included scientists, government officials, emergency responders and utility experts - predicted that major freeways and railways would be severed. The fault runs across major arteries including Interstate 10 and Interstate 15.
"An earthquake of this size and scope is inevitable in southern California, and we are simply not ready for it," said Sue Perry, a USGS staff scientist who contributed to the report. "An earthquake of that size could be the Katrina of southern California."
The scientists prepared a hypothetical model in which the quake occurs on November 13, 2008, at 10am, starting near the eastern shore of the Salton Sea and travelling northwest along the fault at two miles per second. A narrative, much like a movie script, depicts the "realistic outcome" of the quake.
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