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Washington: Some 1.3 million illegal immigrants have left the US since Congress failed to pass comprehensive immigration reform in the summer of 2007. If the trend continues, according to a new study, the nation's illegal population will drop by half in the next five years.
Moreover, reports the Centre for Immigration Studies, young Hispanic immigrants began heading south before the nation's economy did - a clue that what's driving the new outmigration is a stepped-up border and workplace enforcement, not a souring US job market.
The source of the report - a think tank with a record of opposing illegal and even some legal immigration - is controversial in immigrant communities. But its findings could help frame the debate in a new Congress and a new administration.
The key conclusion is that enforcement, not the economy, is driving the decision to self-deport.
"The dropoff in illegal immigration seems to occur before there is a runup in their unemployment rate," says Steven Camarota, director of research at the Centre for Immigration Studies. But he also cites evidence of a link to discussion in Congress about a path to legalisation for undocumented workers.
"From May to April 2007 there is an actual uptick in the number of illegals in the country, which falls off after the legislation fails. It seems as if the discussion of legalisation had some effect on the decision to come or go or both," he says.
Shadow workforce
Critics caution that little is known about a shadow workforce estimated at anywhere from 11 million to 20 million.
"The problem is it's difficult to know what's causing a change like this," says Tamar Jacoby, president of ImmigrationWorks USA, an organisation of employers nationwide lobbying for comprehensive immigration reform.
"But the one thing we know for sure is that the country is in a deep economic downturn, if not a recession, which means there's much less need for workers, especially those providing services for the middle class."
"Immigration is a market-driven phenomenon and that's why immigration is beneficial to the economy," she says.
"When we need them, they come; and when we don't, they go home. Has enforcement had some effect? Perhaps. But there's no question that the economic downturn would in and of itself have a huge effect in attracting fewer illegal immigrants and sending more home."
The Department of Homeland Security has reported a spike in deportation of illegal immigrants - 285,000 fiscal 2007.
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